送彩金的娱乐平台:为什么对TPP疑虑的批评是错误的

Globalization has looked pretty sickly of late. Immigration, multinational companies and free trade are under fire from populists on both the left and right in Europe and the U.S. Trade activity is stagnant, with total exports and imports recently growing more slowly than global output.

全球化看起来出了很大问题。无论是美国和欧洲的左翼还是右翼民粹主义,都在指责移民、跨国公司和自由贸易。贸易活动处于一种停滞状态,整体进出口的增长速度远比全球产出慢。

This makes it all the more remarkable that 12 countries just agreed to unprecedented new rules governing both domestic and international trade policies in the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Even more remarkable is the broad political support TPP enjoys in most of those countries.

跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系12国近期达成一致的前所未有的国内和国际贸易政策使得全球化问题更加显著,更引人注目的是TPP得到的广泛的政治支持。

This suggests that among governing parties at least, support for the expansive American model of free trade?rather than China’s narrower variant?remains intact. It is thus ironic that the one country where passage looks precarious is the U.S.

这个新协议表明各国,欧诺娱乐城官网,至少各执政党派,依然支持美国的自由经济模型,而不是中国的流动性紧缩。讽刺的是,自由贸易岌岌可危的正是美国。

TPP would be the U.S.’s first major multilateral trade agreement in more than 20 years. Free trade has become a harder slog as trade itself has evolved. In the decades after signing the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade in 1947, countries cut tariffs and quotas primarily on manufactured goods. (Agriculture largely remained restricted.) As barriers to goods fell away, the focus shifted to services, intellectual property, foreign investment and government procurement.

TPP将会是美国超过20年来第一个重要的多边贸易协议,欧诺娱乐城官网。随着贸易自身的发展,自由贸易的发展受到了更多限制。在1947年签署关税与贸易总协定的几十年后,各国开始削减制造业商品的关税和配额(农业在很大程度上仍然受到限制。 )随着商品贸易壁垒的削弱,贸易壁垒的重心更多转移到服务、知识产权、外商投资和政府采购。

The Canada-U.S. agreement was a watershed in those areas,欧诺娱乐城官网. The 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement went further by requiring Mexico to abide by special provisions on labor and the environment.

加美协议的签定是上述领域的分水岭,而1994年北美自由贸易协定对墨西哥劳工和工作环境的特殊规定进一步加大了壁垒。

These “behind the border” barriers are politically more sensitive than tariffs because they affect domestic policies,欧诺娱乐城官网, from human rights to how much public health systems pay for drugs. Classical arguments for free trade are also less relevant: a country that grants foreign drug companies longer patent protection is raising prices for its own consumers,欧诺娱乐城官网, and more restrictive labor laws erode its competitive advantage of cheap labor. Yet these sorts of rules are the conditions the U.S. and other advanced countries insist on if developing countries are to have access to their markets.

比起关税,这些“边境背后”的壁垒在政治上更加敏感,因为它们影响到国内政策,从人权问题到公共医疗保障制定。古典自由贸易相比则少有这些问题:授予外国制药公司更长的专利保护来提高它的价格,更严格的劳动法削弱廉价劳动力的相对优势,欧诺娱乐城官网。如果发展中国家想要进入美国和其它发达国家,就要面对这类坚持的规则。

This is why TPP’s significance lies not in its economic impact?modest for most signatories?but how it restricts its members’ domestic sovereignty. Malaysia has long favored ethnic Malays in its government procurement policies; it will have to relax those rules for foreign suppliers. Brunei, which has no minimum wage, will have to institute one.

因此对大部分签字国而言,TPP的意义不在于经济影响,而在于它对成员国国家主权的限制,欧诺娱乐城官网。比如马来西亚在政府采购政策上一直倾向马来人,现在它必须对国外供应商放宽规则。文莱将必须设定最低工资。

Five TPP countries provide no period of exclusivity for producers of complex, and costly,欧诺娱乐城官网, biologic drugs; four provide just five years. The details are complex, but all will have to raise that to effectively eight years.

5个TPP国家提供对制造者提过无限期复杂昂贵的生物药品,4个提供5年。具体机制很复杂,但它们都需要将期限提高到有效期8年。

Japan will have to crack open further its highly protected rice market, and Canada will have to do the same for dairy, poultry and eggs.

日本将需要进一步打开高度保护的大米市场,而加拿大则需要开放奶制品、家禽和鸡蛋市场。

By contrast, TPP asks relatively little of the U.S. Tariffs on auto parts will disappear, while tariffs on vehicles imported from Japan will fall over a glacial 25- to 30-year period.

根据协定,TPP对美国的限制相对较少。美国将需要取消汽配关税,同时对日本汽车的进口关税将在25-30年间降低。

Yet, political support for TPP in the U.S. is far more tepid than in other countries. Between the two major parties, the top four presidential candidates all oppose it. Passage in the House of Representatives is far from assured.

然而TPP在美国得到的政治支持远不及其他成员国。两党四个主要总统竞选人都对TPP表示了反对,协定能否在众议院通过也不确定。

Opponents complain there is no prohibition on holding down currencies to boost exports. The mechanism for settling disputes between companies and governments is either too strong, or not strong enough. The American biotech industry and its supporters in both parties are upset that biologics don’t get 12 years of exclusivity in TPP countries, as they do in the U.S., and worry they will be pressured to accept shorter limits at home.

反对者批评协定没有限制成员国降低汇率促进出口。而它在政府和企业间解决纠纷的作用机制不是太强就是太弱。美国两党在生物技术产业及其支持者都对未达成和国内一致的12年排他性协议表示失望,同时它们担忧这些协议将会影响国内政策。

The pact is, at its core, an effort to shape globalization according to American standards of economic conduct. So what happens if commercial and political concerns derail TPP in the U.S.?

TPP协议的核心是按照美国经济行为的标准塑造全球化经济。因此一旦美国的经济政治问题破坏TPP会发生什么?

“These aspirations about how other countries run their economies will have to be shelved for at least a decade,” predicts Gary Hufbauer, a TPP proponent at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

“这将会使得其他国家运行本国经济的愿望至少要搁置十年。”TPP的支持者,Peterson国际经济研究所的Gary Hufbauer教授预测。

In the end, whether TPP passes or fails will matter far more for American economic leadership than the modest costs and benefits it poses to American companies and workers.

最后,无论TPP通过与否,它对于美国能否领导经济的影响远大于对美国公司和劳工的成本和收益的影响。



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送彩金的娱乐平台:为什么对TPP疑虑的批评是错误的。
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